Stock daily read

What happened with ASLE today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ASLE in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

AerSale Corporation serves owners and operators of commercial aircraft that still have useful operating life. It buys aircraft and engines from airlines and leasing companies, then sells them or rents them out, usually on short-term leases. Once their remaining operating value has been used, it typically dismantles them and sells reusable parts. This asset business generates most of its revenue, with engines contributing much more than aircraft; recovered parts are its largest revenue category.

Customers also pay its TechOps business to maintain, repair and modify aircraft, engines and components. These customers include passenger airlines, cargo operators and government users. AerSale also designs and installs aircraft upgrades such as AerSafe and AerAware. It uses recovered parts both for customer sales and to support its own leased equipment and repair work.

The business depends on buying used equipment on favorable terms and finding demand for its remaining flying life and parts. Maintenance demand also depends on how much aircraft fly and how much work airlines outsource. Its products and services must meet aviation regulators’ airworthiness standards before entering service, and its repair stations need regulatory licenses.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ASLE’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ASLE says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

AerSale’s results hinge on used-engine and parts availability and airline maintenance demand; AAR, absent from this list, is an important rival in both asset management and maintenance.

  • FTAI Aviation competes with AerSale for airlines and asset owners buying or leasing engines and buying refurbished engines and used serviceable parts. Its CFM56 engine exchange and parts business is worth watching alongside AerSale’s engine leasing and parts sales.

  • Willis Lease Finance competes with AerSale to lease commercial engines to aircraft operators and recover equipment value through aftermarket parts sales. Watch its engine availability and leasing revenue: AerSale also earns rent before eventually dismantling much of its equipment for parts.

  • HEICO competes with AerSale for aircraft component repair and distribution business and spending on lower-cost replacements for original-equipment parts. Its Flight Support Group’s replacement-parts and repair sales are the relevant business to watch, rather than its electronics operations.

  • AerCap overlaps with AerSale in leasing and trading commercial aircraft and engines to operators, but focuses on longer-term aircraft leases rather than mid-life equipment maintenance and teardown. Its lease rates and asset sales offer a comparison for AerSale’s leasing and trading business, not its parts-recovery model.

  • TransDigm Group competes for aircraft operators’ maintenance spending with components that overlap with parts of AerSale’s component and engineered-solutions business. Its aircraft component sales—not its non-aviation business—are the relevant comparison for AerSale’s repair and aircraft-upgrade offerings.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    AerSale’s Fed-linked variable-rate debt can make interest costs rise or fall as the Fed changes its policy rate.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    FTAI Aviation Ltd. earningsFTAI

    FTAI Aviation’s report will show demand from airlines and asset owners for refurbished engines and parts, a market AerSale also serves by leasing and selling engines.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Willis Lease Finance Corp earningsWLFC

    Willis Lease Finance’s report will show engine-lease and aftermarket-parts demand, two parts of the business that connect to AerSale’s engine leasing and teardown sales.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    AerSale Corporation earningsThis company

    AerSale’s report will show whether engine and aircraft leases and used serviceable parts sales can offset lumpy whole-asset deals and protect Asset Management Solutions margins.

in 59 daysThu, Dec 17

  1. Time to be announced

    HEICO Corporation earningsHEI

    HEICO’s report will show whether airlines and repair providers are spending on replacement parts and repairs, markets that overlap with AerSale’s component work and engineered solutions.