Stock daily read

What happened with ACHC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ACHC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Acadia Healthcare operates treatment facilities across the United States and Puerto Rico for people with mental health conditions and substance use disorders. Acute inpatient psychiatric care generates most of its revenue, with residential and outpatient treatment serving patients who need other levels of care.

Medicaid supplies most of the revenue; commercial insurers, Medicare and patients provide the rest. Government programs generally pay predetermined rates, while commercial insurers pay negotiated rates. The business therefore depends on patients retaining coverage, the services payors authorize and the rates they pay. Admission approvals and reviews of treatment needs can limit inpatient stays and occupancy.

Keeping facilities staffed and maintaining referral relationships are central to serving patients. Facilities must also meet licensing and care standards to remain open and eligible for government reimbursement. In many states, adding facilities, services or beds requires certificate-of-need approval, limiting how Acadia can expand.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ACHC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ACHC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Acadia Healthcare’s results hinge on demand for mental health and addiction care, how fully its beds are used and payment rates—especially Medicaid, which supplies most of its revenue.

  • Universal Health Services competes with Acadia Healthcare for psychiatric patients, referrals and payments for care at their mental health facilities; Acadia receives those payments from government programs, commercial insurers and patients. Watch Universal Health Services’ behavioral health facility revenue rather than its broader hospital business for a closer read on Acadia’s market.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Universal Health Services, Inc. earningsUHS

    Universal Health Services’ behavioral health facility revenue will show how the market where it and Acadia Healthcare compete for psychiatric patients, referrals and payor payments is holding up.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Acadia, the Fed’s policy rate—the benchmark that influences borrowing costs—matters because higher rates can raise interest on variable-rate debt and leave less cash for patient care operations and investment.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. 10:00 AMET

    JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)

    Job openings track employers’ unfilled positions; for Acadia, stronger hiring demand can make it harder to recruit clinical staff for its behavioral-health facilities and raise wages, overtime and contract-labor costs it may not recover through reimbursement.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. earningsThis company

    Acadia Healthcare earns most of its revenue from behavioral care, and this report will show whether patient days and revenue per patient day are growing into collectible revenue at its facilities.

in 18 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)

    The monthly jobs report counts changes in payroll employment; for Acadia, a strong labor market can make recruiting and retaining clinical staff at its behavioral-health facilities more costly, raising wages, overtime and contract-labor costs that it may not offset with reimbursement.