Stock daily read

What happened with AAP today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AAP in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Advance Auto Parts serves garages, service stations and auto dealerships that need parts for customer repairs, alongside drivers maintaining their own vehicles. These professional and do-it-yourself customers make similarly large contributions to sales. The business is concentrated in the United States, with stores under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest names. It delivers parts to repair businesses, serves consumers in stores and online, and supplies independently owned Carquest stores. Its products include national brands and its own brands, such as DieHard batteries.

Sales depend on vehicles needing maintenance and repair, particularly older vehicles outside manufacturer warranties. Serving that demand requires having the right parts available quickly: distribution centers, hubs and stores support same-day or next-day availability. Merchandise purchase prices and supplier terms also shape how much the company earns from those sales.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AAP’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AAP says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • O’Reilly competes closely with Advance Auto Parts for replacement-parts purchases: both sell through store networks, with roughly half their sales from DIY customers and half from professional installers. O’Reilly’s sales to repair professionals are worth watching for competition over a customer group that also supplies about half of Advance’s revenue.

  • AutoZone competes with Advance Auto Parts for DIY motorists’ and repair businesses’ spending on replacement parts and maintenance supplies, using stores and delivery services. Watch AutoZone’s parts availability and prompt delivery to repair customers—both are areas where Advance also competes for orders.

  • Genuine Parts’ NAPA business competes with Advance Auto Parts for repair-shop and retail parts purchases, but its industrial and international businesses make total-company results a less direct comparison. Watch North America Automotive sales rather than group revenue for the closer read on Advance’s competitive market.

  • Advance Auto Parts buys replacement parts from Motorcar Parts of America, whose range includes alternators, starters and brake components, then sells parts to DIY customers and professional installers. Watch Motorcar Parts of America’s product quality and supply reliability, which it identifies as important to buyers choosing a parts supplier.

  • CarParts.com competes online for the DIY and professional customers who buy mechanical replacement parts and accessories from Advance Auto Parts’ stores and website. Its ability to match parts accurately to a vehicle and deliver them quickly shows where Advance faces competition for online repair purchases.

  • Valvoline and Advance Auto Parts depend on maintenance needs in the same U.S. and Canadian vehicle fleet: Valvoline charges consumers and commercial customers for oil changes and preventive maintenance, while Advance sells parts and fluids. Valvoline’s oil-change business offers a read on the maintenance demand behind Advance’s oils and fluids sales, not on parts-store competition.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. earningsORLY

    O’Reilly’s report will show whether repair shops are still buying parts, giving a read on the market where Advance Auto Parts competes for professional orders.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC earningsThis company

    Advance Auto Parts’ report will show whether store sales can grow while the parts business holds on to its improved gross margin.

in 30 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    Valvoline Inc. earningsVVV

    Valvoline’s report will show whether drivers and commercial customers are still paying for oil changes, a read on maintenance demand behind Advance Auto Parts’ oils and fluids sales.