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MajorAgendaThu, Oct 29 ET 8:30 AM pre-market1 min read
The personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, measures changes in the prices of goods and services households consume. The core measure excludes food and energy and is an important guide for the Fed. September's monthly increase is forecast at 0.2%, matching the previous 0.2%. Recent producer- and import-price increases make this an important check on persistent price pressure, not a measure of how much households bought.[1]
Expected 0.2% Last release 0.2%
If it comes in above expectations If the monthly increase exceeds 0.2%, consumer prices outside food and energy rose faster than expected, leaving the Fed less room to cut rates subsequently and potentially keeping borrowing expensive for businesses and their customers for longer.[1]
If it comes in below expectations If the monthly increase is below 0.2%, core consumer-price pressure was milder than expected, strengthening the case for eventual policy easing without establishing that fuel costs are falling too.[1]
A hotter reading could pressure growth and property stocks through interest rates and make life harder for consumer businesses unable to raise prices. A cooler reading generally helps their financing and valuation backdrop, but sales still need to hold up. This release follows the scheduled Fed decision, so watch what it changes about subsequent policy and whether companies can raise prices without losing customers.[1]