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Worth notingAgendaTue, Oct 20 ET 8:30 AM pre-market1 min read
Housing starts count residential units on which construction has begun, measuring actual building activity rather than builders' confidence. September is forecast at 1.3 million, above the previous 1.275 million. With mortgage affordability under pressure and new Canadian lumber duties announced, the report supplies a baseline for construction and materials demand, not a measure of those latest developments' effects.[1]
Expected 1.3 M Last release 1.275 M
If it comes in above expectations If starts exceed 1.3 million, residential construction is stronger than expected, creating more near-term demand for contractors and building materials without establishing that those homes have been sold.[1]
If it comes in below expectations If starts are below 1.3 million, fewer residential units entered construction than expected, weakening near-term demand for labor and materials and potentially slowing the addition of future housing supply.[1]
More starts generally support lumber, building-material and construction-related stocks. But if home sales fail to keep pace, builders could accumulate inventory and need more incentives. Fewer starts weaken suppliers' revenue outlook while potentially reducing builders' cash commitments. Watch permits, completed-home inventory and sales to see whether construction turns into cash rather than simply more work in progress.[1]