Weather agency warns El Niño could cut Ivory Coast cocoa output 25%

A weather agency warned that El Niño could reduce cocoa production in Ivory Coast by 25%.^[1] The West African country is a major global supplier of cocoa, a key ingredient in chocolate.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that changes rainfall and temperatures in many regions. The reported production decline remains a possibility.^[1]

If the projected 25% production decline materializes, less cocoa would be available to buyers, putting upward pressure on cocoa prices.^[1] Chocolate and confectionery makers could then face higher costs when buying fresh supplies.

Absorbing those costs would squeeze profit margins; raising selling prices could weaken consumer purchases. Previously agreed purchase prices can delay the impact, so the timing and severity would differ across manufacturers.

Impact

• Chocolate and confectionery makersRisk

  Manufacturers that rely on cocoa may need to pay more or seek alternative supplies. If the production loss raises ingredient costs, businesses without locked-in purchase prices or room to raise selling prices face greater pressure on profits.^[1]