American Airlines forecasts full-year loss as fuel costs outpace fare gains

American Airlines Group reported on October 22 that third-quarter 2026 revenue reached a record $16.3 billion, up 19.3% from a year earlier and above the top of its previous guidance range.^[1] It nevertheless posted an adjusted net loss of $182 million; adjusted results exclude certain company-designated items.^[2]

The company lowered its earnings outlook because of higher fuel costs and now expects a deeper loss for the full year.^[3]

Higher fuel prices increase the cost of operating flights. American's third-quarter fuel expense rose by $1.9 billion, or 67.5%, from a year earlier, with an average fuel price of $3.85 a gallon; that increase prevented revenue growth from translating into profit.^[2] To protect earnings, airlines need higher fares, additional revenue or savings elsewhere sufficient to cover the extra fuel bill.

American's fourth-quarter outlook points to continued pressure: it projects revenue growth of 20% to 23% alongside an adjusted loss of $0.50 to $1.10 a share.^[4] For investors assessing airlines, revenue growth therefore needs to be weighed against the increase in fuel costs.

Impact

What to watch next

• On October 28, the EIA's crude oil inventory report for the week ended October 23 will offer a clue to upstream fuel supply tightness, though it does not directly measure jet fuel prices.