Zillow reports US pending home sales fell 16.8% in October

Zillow's October Market Report showed that newly pending US home listings—homes that went under contract but had not yet completed the sale—fell 16.8% from a year earlier, the largest decline since August 2023. These contracts are a leading indicator of the following month's completed sales.^[1] Zillow's preliminary measure of completed existing-home sales also fell 8.7% year over year in October.^[1]

Fewer newly signed contracts leave a smaller pipeline of sales to complete. If that weakness carries through to closing, brokers have fewer opportunities to earn commissions and lenders have fewer home-purchase loans to originate; October's decline in completed sales already points to pressure on transaction volumes.^[1]

Home purchases also prompt spending on furniture, appliances and moving services. Fewer households completing purchases could reduce new orders for those businesses, although the report does not quantify that effect.^[1]

Impact

• Real estate brokers and home-purchase lendersRisk

  Companies that earn fees from home transactions face volume pressure: fewer completed sales weigh on current commissions and lending activity, while fewer new contracts shrink the pipeline of business they can compete for.^[1]

• Furniture, appliances and moving servicesRisk

  Retailers and service providers that rely on home purchases and moves could receive fewer new-customer orders. The size of the effect depends on how much of the contract decline carries through to completed sales.^[1]

What to watch next

• The November 12 release of October US existing-home sales will provide a cross-check on the weakness in completed transactions shown by Zillow's preliminary measure.