EIA raises 2027 gasoline-price forecast 5%, lifting expected fuel costs

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the government's energy statistics agency, raised its 2027 gasoline-price forecast by 5% from last month's estimate. It cited constrained global petroleum supply and wider crack spreads through year-end—the gap between refined fuel prices and the cost of crude oil.‌^[1]

The change revises the outlook for future prices. The report also says consumers could still see relief at the pump, but the supplied information gives neither a forecast price per gallon nor the size of any decline.^[1]

Constrained petroleum supply makes low-cost feedstock harder for refiners to obtain, while wider crack spreads mean refined fuels sell for more relative to crude costs. If the EIA's outlook holds, refiners could earn more from each unit processed, although other operating costs and production volumes still determine profits.^[1]

For gasoline-powered delivery fleets and households, the higher forecast means less potential fuel savings in 2027 than last month's outlook suggested. Businesses unable to pass those costs to customers would face pressure on margins; households could have less to spend on optional purchases. These effects depend on the forecast being realized.^[1]

Impact

What to watch next

• The EIA's November 12 crude and gasoline inventory releases, covering the week ended November 6, will test near-term supply tightness. Draws would support that concern and builds could ease it, though one week cannot validate the 2027 forecast.