Omdia estimates global smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter

Market research firm Omdia preliminarily estimates that global smartphone shipments fell 20% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, and says a memory shortage is reshaping competition; the figures are not yet final.^[1] Shipments measure phones sent into sales channels rather than purchases by consumers, so the decline should not be read as a 20% drop in consumer demand.

Omdia links the sharp shipment contraction to a memory shortage, but the available report does not quantify the separate effects of constrained supply and weaker demand.^[1] Memory is essential for phones to run and store data: a shortage can limit finished-phone production and raise procurement costs. Handset makers that absorb higher costs face pressure on margins; those that raise prices risk prompting consumers to delay replacing their phones.

Lower phone production also reduces the need for chips, cameras and other parts. The risk therefore extends beyond handset brands to suppliers whose orders depend on phone production volumes, without implying that every component’s price will fall.

Impact

• Smartphone makersRisk

  Constrained memory supply may force handset brands to adjust production plans. Alongside shrinking shipment volumes, manufacturers may have to choose between absorbing higher component costs and raising prices, putting either margins or replacement demand at risk.^[1]

• Phone chip and component suppliersRisk

  If memory shortages constrain phone production, suppliers of processors, cameras and other non-memory parts may receive fewer orders. The exposure is to lower production volumes, not evidence that prices or profits will fall for every type of component.^[1]