US October CPI rises 0.4%, topping forecasts and pushing Treasury yields higher

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10 that the consumer price index, which tracks prices paid for goods and services, rose 0.4% in October from September. That was slower than September’s 0.6% increase but above market expectations.^[1][2]

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% from the previous month, also slightly above expectations.^[3]Reports said no year-over-year inflation rate was available because the government shutdown prevented collection of October 2025 data.^[4]

The upside surprises in both headline and core inflation strengthen the case for a December Fed rate increase. Governor Christopher Waller had said a 0.3% monthly core reading would warrant considering a half-percentage-point increase, a threshold this report met. Officials still differ over how quickly to raise rates, so the larger move remains a possibility.^[4][5]

Rate expectations have already reached the bond market. On November 10, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.73% from 4.56% in the previous session, while the ten-year rose to 4.98% from 4.88%. Coverage linked the jump to CPI and Waller’s comments. Treasury yields help set the price of loans and bonds: higher yields raise the cost of new borrowing or replacing maturing debt and make future profits less attractive relative to bonds offering higher returns today, pressuring technology-stock valuations.^[6][7]

Impact

What to watch next

• November 12: Speeches by several Fed officials will show how much support Waller’s case for faster rate increases has among policymakers.
• November 13: October producer prices, which measure prices received by producers for goods and services, will test whether inflation pressure persists. Forecasts call for monthly increases of 0.4% overall and 0.3% excluding food and energy; upside surprises would reinforce that concern.