US jobless claims fall to 189,000, a 57-year low

US initial unemployment-benefit claims fell to 189,000 in the week ended October 31, below economists’ forecast of 197,000, the Labor Department said. Reports described the number of new applications as a 57-year low, indicating that layoffs remained low.^[1][2]

Initial claims declined by 6,000 from the previous week, while continuing claims rose by 23,000 in the week ended October 31. Continuing claims count people still receiving benefits, so low layoffs can coexist with unemployed workers taking time to find another job.^[3]

Fewer layoffs allow more households to keep their paychecks, helping sustain demand for retailers, restaurants and leisure services. Rising continuing claims limit how confidently this report can signal broad labor-market strength; spending prospects also depend on unemployed workers finding new jobs.^[2][3]

If employment remains resilient, the Fed may face less pressure to cut rates to support the economy, potentially slowing relief in borrowing costs for businesses and households. That is a possible policy consequence of claims coming in below expectations.^[1] On November 5, the two-year Treasury yield was 4.46%, down 0.12 percentage point from the previous session, while the ten-year yield fell 0.06 percentage point to 4.84%. Lower yields help ease financing pressure, with further employment and inflation data shaping the rate outlook.

Impact

What to watch next

• The October jobs report on November 6 will test whether low layoffs are accompanied by stronger hiring. Payroll growth is forecast at 65,000, versus 29,000 previously, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%.
• October consumer inflation on November 10 will test whether inflation leaves room for rate cuts. Core prices, excluding food and energy, are forecast to rise 0.2% month over month, down from 0.3% previously.
• Initial claims, continuing claims and the four-week claims average due November 12 will test whether low layoffs persist and whether ongoing benefit receipt continues to rise.