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MajorMarket eventThu, Oct 291 min read
Rising volumes are outweighing lower prices, but temporary revenue benefits complicate the picture for recurring earnings.
Lilly reported on October 29 that third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 39% from a year earlier to $24.4 billion, driven mainly by Mounjaro, its diabetes treatment, and Zepbound, its obesity treatment.[1] It raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to $91–$92 billion.[2]
At the same time, Lilly lowered its full-year profit forecast because of deal-related charges, sending its sales and profit outlooks in different directions.[3]
Lilly's third-quarter sales volume rose 53%, outweighing a 15% decline in realized prices—the prices it ultimately receives after discounts and similar adjustments.[4] That shows how selling more medicine can lift revenue even as revenue per unit falls. For diabetes and weight-loss drugmakers, sustained growth depends on expanding sales while controlling costs and absorbing price pressure.
The quarter also included about $900 million in revenue benefits, primarily a $410 million Jardiance milestone payment and favorable revisions to rebate and discount estimates; Lilly said no further Jardiance milestone payments remain.[1] Assessing future sales and profits therefore requires separating underlying drug demand from these one-time payments and accounting adjustments.
Lilly's sales provide evidence of expanding demand, supporting an opportunity for competing drugmakers to win business. But Lilly is selling more at lower realized prices, so rivals seeking patients also face price competition; their ability to turn demand into profit depends on their own volumes and costs.[1][4]