S&P 500 Breaks Its 200‑Day Line: Can You Trust This Relief Rally?

If you own index funds in a retirement or brokerage account, you just watched a nasty slide and then a huge bounce that feels almost too good to be true.

The S&P 500 has fallen for weeks, even closing below its 200‑day moving average for the first time since 2025, while oil surged on the Iran war, the Fed sidelined hopes for 2026 rate cuts, fear gauges flashed “Extreme Fear,” and more than 70% of S&P stocks dropped 20% or more in one analysis.

Then a single headline about “productive” U.S.–Iran talks and a five‑day pause in strikes sent Dow futures up more than 1,000 points, oil back below $100, travel stocks ripping higher, and the major indexes jumping over 1% in a day.