Bond yields jump as Iran oil shock revives inflation fears

Bond yields in the U.S. and Europe pushed higher as investors absorbed stubbornly high oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, forcing a rethink of inflation and interest‑rate paths. That same energy shock is showing up in forecasts, with the OECD now expecting U.S. inflation around 4.2% for 2026, well above earlier estimates. For a regular investor, this isn’t some abstract macro story: higher and stickier inflation can mean fewer rate cuts, more pressure on stock valuations—especially tech and growth—and a very different world for mortgages, bond funds, and sector leadership.