Oil Above $100 and Your Fuel Bill: The Iran–Hormuz Shock in Plain English

If you’ve filled up the car or looked at flight prices and thought, “Why is everything suddenly more expensive?”, the answer is basically: **Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and $100+ oil**. A war-driven supply shock has pushed oil up so far that one major oil ETF has *doubled* since early 2026, and Brent crude has been holding above $100 instead of briefly spiking and calming down.

Markets are now seesawing between fear of **“oil stays high and keeps inflation hot”** and **“oil crashes if demand cracks or a ceasefire sticks.”** Central bankers are openly saying they’re more worried about inflation than jobs, which matters for your future mortgage, loan, and credit-card rates. Meanwhile, a five‑day pause in planned U.S. strikes on Iran gave stocks a relief rally and knocked oil back below $100 for a moment – but the conflict, and the volatility, are very much still here.