Gas prices at the pump just jumped — and markets suddenly remember ‘stagflation’

Gasoline in the U.S. has leapt to about $3.88 a gallon, roughly a one‑third jump in a month, after oil surged above $115 on attacks around Middle East energy hubs and near‑standstill shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s money straight out of your pocket — and it’s also the kind of shock that makes central banks nervous and stock markets wobbly.

Oil‑driven inflation is now colliding with worries about slower growth: economists say a big, sustained crude spike could raise U.S. recession risk, and Moody’s already pegs the odds of a downturn near 50/50. Central banks from the Fed to Europe and Taiwan are holding rates but talking tougher on inflation, markets have dialed back hopes for quick rate cuts, and rate‑sensitive areas like housing are feeling it via higher mortgage costs.

If you’ve filled up the car lately and winced, you’re not imagining it. The average U.S. gasoline price is around $3.88, up about 32% from a month ago, and diesel has pushed back above $5 in places. That’s the Iran conflict and Hormuz bottlenecks showing up directly on the gas station sign.