Q1 GDP tests whether growth is really firm

GDP is the broadest snapshot of the economy, and this print will be measured against a forecast of 2.2% after a weak 0.5% prior quarter. That matters because stronger growth can support earnings, but it can also keep the Fed from getting too comfortable on rates.

1. A beat above 2.2% would say the economy is holding up better than expected, which can help cyclical stocks but also keep the Fed cautious.
2. An in-line reading near 2.2% would support the idea of steady growth without adding a new inflation scare.
3. A miss back toward 0.5% would revive the slow-growth worry and could hit economically sensitive sectors first.

GDP is a direct read on the business cycle, so industrial names tend to react when the growth picture changes.