Core PCE: inflation cooldown on trial

Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and markets expect monthly core prices to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%. It lands right after the Fed meeting, so traders will use it to check whether the central bank's message still fits the newest price data.

A reading above 0.3% would say inflation is still sticky. That usually keeps pressure on yields and on the parts of the market that care most about borrowing costs.

A reading below 0.3% would support the idea that price pressure is easing, which tends to help rate-sensitive areas and gives growth stocks more room.

A reading right at 0.3% keeps the focus on the trend rather than the headline, with the market asking whether this is enough cooling to keep the Fed comfortable.

Inflation data shifts Fed expectations, and that quickly feeds into Treasury yields and bank pricing. Hotter data usually supports the idea of higher-for-longer rates; cooler data does the reverse.