Fed projections test the market's rate map

This is the Fed's own map for where policy and the economy may be headed. Even without a rate move, the projections can matter because traders use them to judge whether the central bank sees growth and inflation running hotter or cooler than before, and that matters with the 10-year yield still above 4%.

A more hawkish set of projections would likely push yields higher and make the market less comfortable with rate-sensitive stocks. A softer set would do the opposite, but the move only tends to stick if the statement and press conference point the same way.

If the projections barely change, traders may call it background noise and move on to the wording. In that case, the market reaction would be driven more by the story behind the numbers than by the numbers themselves.

The projections help set the tone for bank funding costs, loan demand, and the curve that lenders live with every day. A higher rate path tends to be a tougher setup for Financial Services; a lower one usually helps.