U.S.-Iran truce nears

Markets rose after reports said the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal to end the conflict. Oil fell, while stocks and bonds climbed, as investors bet that lower war risk would mean fewer supply shocks and cheaper energy.

• The main chain is straightforward: if the U.S. and Iran really move toward a deal, the market takes some war risk out of the Middle East. That usually means less fear of oil supply disruption, so crude falls first and energy producers feel the pain fastest because they are paid less for each barrel.

• Cheaper oil helps on the other side of the ledger. Airlines and other fuel-heavy businesses get lower input costs, and the calmer tone can also support travel and shipping demand. At the same time, strong AI earnings keep money flowing into chips, servers, networking gear, and data-center buildout, which is why technology shares are getting a second push.

• The key thing to watch now is whether the oil drop keeps going and whether the diplomacy looks durable, not just a one-day headline. If oil bounces back or tensions return, the energy drag can fade quickly. If AI spending cools, the tech lift can lose steam just as fast.

Stronger AI spending helps the whole technology complex because it boosts demand for chips, servers, networking gear, and the equipment used to make them. When companies keep building data centers and buying more computing power, a wide range of tech businesses can benefit at the same time.

NVIDIA is the clearest AI hardware winner here. When investors expect more spending on data centers and AI systems, its chips tend to sit at the center of that buildout.