JOLTS job openings test labor demand

JOLTS tracks how many jobs are sitting open, so it is a simple read on how much hiring demand is left in the economy. Markets now care because yields are still elevated and rate-sensitive shares have not fully settled into one clear direction.

Consensus looks for 7.3 million openings, down from 7.618 million last month. A number that keeps drifting lower would support the idea that labor demand is cooling in a way that could eventually make the Fed more comfortable.

• A print above 7.618 million would say labor demand is still running hot. That usually lifts Treasury yields and makes rate-sensitive stocks a bit less comfortable.

• A print below 7.3 million would lean the other way: a cooler jobs market, easier rate expectations, and a friendlier backdrop for long-duration growth and real estate.

• Roughly in line would probably keep the reaction contained. In this market, traders care less about the exact level than about whether the labor market is clearly cooling or still stubbornly tight.

Banks and other lenders are sensitive to rate expectations. If openings stay firm, yields can stay firm too; if openings soften, the rate backdrop can ease.