FOMC projections put the policy path in focus

The Fed's projections are its own map for growth, inflation, unemployment, and the likely rate path. In a market that is already sideways, these forecasts can matter as much as the rate vote because they show whether officials think policy needs to stay tight for longer.

The projections can reprice the whole week because they reveal how the Fed sees growth, inflation, unemployment, and its own next step. A more hawkish map — especially one that points to higher rates for longer — would usually push yields up and put pressure on Technology and Real Estate.

A softer map would do the opposite, easing yields and helping rate-sensitive shares. If the projections barely move, the market may treat them as confirmation rather than a new signal and keep its focus on the press conference.

The Fed's rate outlook matters directly for banks because a higher-for-longer path can support lending spreads, while a softer path can narrow them. This is one of the cleanest sector links in the event.