ISM services PMI puts the expansion streak in focus

Services make up most of the economy, so this PMI is a broad check on whether activity is still holding together. The previous reading was 53.6, and that is exactly where the market is looking again, so investors will mostly want to know whether the expansion is still steady or starting to lose momentum. In a market where tech has led and breadth is mixed, this release can either confirm the current risk mood or chip away at it.

1. A reading above 53.6 would suggest the service side of the economy is still expanding at a healthy pace. That can support cyclical stocks, but it may also keep yields from falling if investors think growth is staying too firm.

2. A reading below 53.6 would say the expansion is losing some speed. That can help rate-sensitive areas if it eases bond yields, but a deeper miss would also raise doubts about how broad the recovery really is.

3. A reading right around 53.6 keeps the message simple: services are still growing, just not in a way that forces a big market rethink. That makes this more of a confirmation test than a regime change.

Services activity feeds directly into consumer-facing businesses, travel, and a lot of non-manufacturing demand. If the index stays firm, this group looks healthier; if it slips, those businesses can feel it quickly.