Core CPI puts sticky inflation on trial

Core inflation strips out food and energy, so it is often the cleaner policy signal than the headline number. With the market already looking a bit nervous on rates, this is a key test of whether underlying inflation is still too hot for comfort.

1. A reading above 0.3% would say the sticky part of inflation is still alive. That is the kind of result that can keep Treasury yields firm and add pressure to Technology and Real Estate.

2. A reading below 0.3% would be a cleaner sign that underlying price pressure is easing. That would help rate-sensitive parts of the market and support the view that the inflation problem is becoming less urgent.

3. An in-line result near 0.3% would be useful, but not decisive. It would keep the market focused on whether the next few releases confirm a real cooling trend or just a temporary pause.

Core inflation matters for discount rates, and discount rates matter a lot for Technology valuations. A hotter core print can keep pressure on growth stocks even if the headline number looks calmer.