Jobless rate puts labor slack in focus

This is the unemployment-rate piece of the April jobs report. The market expects it to stay at 4.3%, so the key question is whether the labor market is holding steady or starting to loosen more clearly.

1. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate would argue the labor market is tighter than feared. That can keep rate-cut hopes in check and lean against bonds and other duration-sensitive assets.

2. A higher-than-expected rate would point to more slack in the job market. That tends to help bonds, but if the move is big enough, it also revives growth worries and hurts risk appetite.

3. An unchanged 4.3% print keeps the message simple: stable, but not strong enough to end the debate. Traders would then care more about payrolls and wages than about the jobless rate itself.

Technology trades partly on the market's view of rates. A tighter labor market can keep yields elevated, while a softer one can support long-duration growth names if recession fears stay contained.