FOMC projections put the rate path in focus

This update is less about one number and more about the Fed's own map for rates, growth, and inflation. With stocks tilted higher but the market still split underneath, traders will use these projections to judge whether policy stays tight for longer or starts to bend sooner.

If the projections lean more hawkish, the market will read that as a sign that high rates may last longer, which usually pushes yields up and pressures rate-sensitive shares.

If the projections come in softer, risk assets get room to breathe and the market can ease some of the pressure on areas that depend on cheaper money.

If the new set looks close to the last one, traders may mostly wait for Powell's tone to decide whether this was a routine update or a bigger shift in thinking.

Inflation and rate expectations move quickly into Treasury yields and bank pricing. If the projections turn more hawkish, banks and brokers usually feel the pressure first; if they soften, that pressure eases.